Which Iran? The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates changes the balances in the Middle East
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are escalating, potentially leading to a significant shift in the power dynamics of the Middle East region.
As international attention focuses on Iran and potential military actions from the U.S., experts warn that a separate conflict brewing between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could have even greater implications for the Middle East. Recently, the two regional powers have clearly been on a collision course, with initial signs of discord emerging as early as December, when Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry described the UAE as 'brotherly' four times in a public statement. However, this diplomatic language belied a more serious situation, as Riyadh had just bombed a weapons shipment linked to the UAE in Yemen, accusing Abu Dhabi of threatening its national security.
Two months after these events, the once cordial remarks have been replaced with overt confrontation. According to a report by the Economist, senior officials from both nations are now actively avoiding each other. This deterioration in relations raises concerns about regional stability, as both nations hold significant military and economic power that can influence the broader Arab world. The potential for a serious conflict between them may overshadow the ongoing tensions with Iran, which could shift alliances and exacerbate ongoing conflicts in Yemen and beyond.
The implications of a Saudi-UAE conflict could extend well beyond their bilateral relationship, affecting regional alliances and the global geopolitical landscape. With Iran positioned as a major player amid these tensions, the focus now turns not only to how these two Gulf nations will navigate their differences but also to how this dynamic will influence their interactions with external powers like the United States, Russia, and China. The evolving crisis in the Middle East calls for careful observation as it unfolds, as new alignments could emerge that reshape the entire region's future.