Brazil, renowned as a global leader in clean energy production, is set to increase its generation of fossil fuel-based energy in the coming years, as hydroelectric power's significance in its energy matrix diminishes. According to a study by Aurora Energy Research, the share of hydroelectricity in Brazil's installed energy capacity is projected to decrease from 42% in 2026 to 36% by 2030 and down further to 28% by 2040. This shift is influenced by the rising incorporation of solar and wind energy sources within the country’s network, as well as the pressing need to ensure a consistent electricity supply.

The report also highlights a counter trend where the share of thermoelectric plants fueled by natural gas, oil, and coal— all fossil fuels contributing to global warming— is anticipated to rise. The expected increase in these sources from 10% to at least 16% by 2030 and to 18% by 2040 reflects a significant shift in Brazil's energy strategy. This shift underscores a growing reliance on non-renewable energy, raising environmental concerns amidst global efforts to combat climate change.

This trend is aligned with the findings of the latest Decennial Energy Plan released by the EPE (Energy Research Company), an agency linked to the federal government. The report underscores that by 2034, over 6% of Brazil's energy production is expected to come from these more polluting sources, indicating a challenging road ahead for Brazil in its quest to balance clean energy production with the urgent demand for a stable electricity supply.