On February 21, 2022, it was widely believed that Iran and the United States were just hours away from announcing a crucial agreement. However, the onset of war in Ukraine shifted global dynamics, and the anticipated agreement was never realized. Advisors close to the Iranian delegation concluded that the realities of the world post-Ukraine war would be vastly different, leading to a repeated phrase among Iranian officials: "Winter is coming," borrowed from the popular series Game of Thrones.

The expectation within Iranian circles was clear: Europe would be plunged into a severe energy crisis, leading to a fracture in Western unity and bolstering Iran's negotiating position. However, as noted by sources such as Foreign Policy, the hoped-for winter came and went, and Iran's bets on this scenario failed to materialize. The Tehran leadership's lofty expectations deprived them of a potentially beneficial agreement that could have eased some sanctions during ongoing negotiations with the West.

Overall, this article highlights Iran's misreading of geopolitical developments and the consequences of overestimating the impact of energy crises on their diplomatic standing. The failure to secure the agreement illustrates the complexities of international negotiations and the shifting landscape caused by unexpected global events, such as the war in Ukraine, which ultimately did not significantly alter the energy dynamics in Europe as once anticipated.