U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has initiated informal discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's grandson, as reported by Axios. This development comes during a time of significant pressure on the Cuban government due to an ongoing economic and social crisis. The conversations are taking place outside of formal diplomatic channels, indicating a strategic approach by the U.S. to explore a potential transition in leadership within Cuba.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration believes that the aging Raúl Castro, who is now 94 years old, remains a key figure in Cuban politics, holding the only real authority in the nation. In light of this, Washington is actively seeking out intermediaries who have direct access to the central power structure of the Cuban regime. This dynamic may signal a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Cuba as the country faces unprecedented internal challenges.

The potential ramifications of these discussions could be significant for both U.S.-Cuba relations and for the future of governance in Cuba. With the Cuban government under strain, the U.S. may be positioning itself to facilitate a transition that could lead to reform or change in leadership, especially if the situation continues to deteriorate. The legitimacy and support for current leadership are being tested, and the U.S. engagement might influence the outcome of these pressures.