The recent announcement by the South Korean government to build two additional nuclear power plants has sparked significant debate. Although proponents in the nuclear sector are excited about the initiative, there is notable pushback from opposition groups. The Korea Atomic Energy Society held unprecedented discussions with reporters from the Ministry of Climate and Energy to express their support for including additional large and small modular reactors in the forthcoming 12th Basic Power Supply and Demand Plan. This plan anticipates a considerable increase in electricity demand over the next fifteen years, largely attributed to advancements in AI and the growing electrification of society. However, some experts question the legitimacy of projecting this demand.

The 11th Basic Power Supply and Demand Plan, established last year, estimates a steady 2% annual growth in electricity consumption from 2024 to 2038, hypothesizing a rise in peak demand by 2.4% during seasons of extreme weather. Consequently, overall electricity consumption is expected to rise from 566.1 terawatt hours (TWh) to 735.1 TWh, with peak electricity demand climbing from 106 gigawatts (GW) to 145.6 GW. This forecast uses a macroeconomic model projecting a GDP growth of 1.63% and a population decrease of 0.14%, factoring in data from several sectors. Although the analysis suggests that power demand from AI applications will grow at an annual rate of 12.7%, transparency regarding the underlying calculations remains lacking, leading to criticism of overblown expectations from the industry.

The ongoing discourse emphasizes the need for careful examination of the assumptions on which these forecasts are based, particularly in light of the declining population. Critics argue that the government's reliance on industry projections without appropriate vetting might lead to misguided energy policy decisions. As the country faces potential energy shortages, the effectiveness of these initiatives hinges on the accuracy and reliability of projected demand, spotlighting the importance of clear, data-driven understanding of future energy needs.