A recent analysis by Newsweek indicates that the investigations following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, have shown that the Russian paramilitary network has not fallen apart but has instead been restructured in a more covert manner as part of a broader Russian strategy. Western intelligence officials now believe that Wagner is no longer a visible mercenary force fighting in Ukraine or Africa, but has become a secretive network operating within NATO nations. This transformation suggests a shift in the nature of the threat posed by Wagner, from traditional military involvement to a more insidious internal security risk.

Following the failed mutiny orchestrated by Prigozhin in June 2023 and his subsequent death in a plane crash two months later, the Kremlin has swiftly aimed to consolidate the Wagner legacy under its control. As reported by Newsweek, this includes dismantling the leadership structure of Wagner and integrating its elements into state-controlled frameworks, including the Russian Ministry of Defense as well as new formations like the "African Legion," which aims to maintain Russian influence in the African Sahel region. This strategic overhaul points to a calculated move by Russia to leverage Wagner's network for security operations without direct military engagement.

According to the analysis, the looming threat is now perceived as one that is internal rather than traditional military aggression. Intelligence investigations cited by Newsweek suggest that Moscow is attempting to utilize the covert capabilities of Wagner to infiltrate and influence NATO member states, raising concerns about domestic security implications within these countries. The implications of this development could significantly affect the geopolitical landscape, as Russia seeks to enhance its influence and presence in areas previously held by its paramilitary groups without overt military confrontation.