The political mathematics in Assam is both compelling and complex, as history shows that even a minute difference in vote share can result in substantial seat victories. In the 2021 assembly elections, the NDA, led by the BJP, secured a mere 1% lead over the opposition alliance, Majhaot, with respective vote shares of 45% to 44%. However, this nominal difference translated into a decisive win for NDA with 75 seats against the 50 seats won by Majhaot. Such occurrences are not isolated; in 2016, despite trailing in total votes, the NDA clinched a staggering 86 seats out of 126, paving the way for a two-thirds majority government.

Looking ahead to the 2026 elections, questions abound whether this pattern will repeat itself or if a shift in political alliances will alter the outcome. The crucial factor will revolve around the strategies employed not just during rallies but primarily in the intricate calculations regarding alliances. A key player in this political landscape is the Bodoland People's Front (BPF); their recent decision to return to the NDA after distancing themselves from the BJP in 2021 will significantly influence voting patterns.

Additionally, the political dynamics are further complicated by the potential directions in which opposition votes may flow, particularly with the nature of dissenting alliances. As Assam gears up for the upcoming election, the interplay of these alliances and the historical trends of voting will be pivotal in determining if the established political arithmetic will hold or if new combinations will redefine the region’s political terrain for the future years to come.