In recent years, Russia's crude oil exports have remained steady in the face of extensive Western sanctions and a rapid decline in the purchasing of Russian energy resources by Europe. Moscow has managed to redirect most of its maritime crude oil to countries such as China, India, and Turkey by offering low prices and using what is referred to as a 'shadow fleet'—old and uninsured tankers. However, this resilience in oil exports is now facing challenges as recent months have seen a decline in exports due to heightened sanctions by the US, particularly tariffs imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil.

The demand for Russian oil has also been further affected by a European Union (EU) ban on the import of fuel refined from Russian crude oil, which came into force last month. This regulatory change has created additional barriers for Russia's oil market, exacerbating existing challenges. According to the analytics firm Kpler, Russian crude oil exports by sea fell to 3.4 million barrels per day in January, down from 3.8 million barrels per day, indicating a significant downturn in trade volumes.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the implications for Russia's oil export capacity become increasingly severe. The combination of EU sanctions, US tariffs, and the shifting dynamics of international trade in oil may force Russia to reduce its oil production. Such a downturn could not only impact the Russian economy but also alter global oil markets as countries adapt to these new realities of supply and trade restrictions, highlighting the complex interdependencies that characterize energy resources in the current geopolitical context.