In a recent article published in The Economist, Carnegie Endowment researcher Aleksandra Prokopenko assesses the state of the Russian economy, stating that while it hasn't collapsed, it is far from recovery. Prokopenko compares Russia's economic situation to a 'death zone' experienced by mountain climbers, where the body consumes itself faster than it can repair. This metaphor illustrates the severity of Russia's economic stagnation, as the nation struggles to maintain a balance while undermining its future capacity for growth.

Prokopenko explains that the Russian economy is trapped in a 'negative balance', meaning that while it manages to hold itself together, it is systematically eroding its prospects for future development. With falling export revenues and an inability to compensate for budget deficits through increased tax revenues, the economic outlook appears grim. Last year, Russia's economy grew by only one percent, and forecasts for this year suggest even worse results. The war and related sectors have seen some growth and investment, but the private sector, small businesses, and consumer industries are left to fend for themselves, highlighting the disconnect between government support and real economic needs.

As the economic conditions continue to deteriorate, Prokopenko's assessment raises concerns about the long-term viability of Russia's economy. With the ongoing war and international sanctions playing a pivotal role in these dynamics, the implications of this analysis suggest that the country must urgently address its economic weaknesses or face further stagnation and decline, potentially leading to broader regional instability.