Mexico, the one that needs the USMCA the most? Dependence on the US and Canada increases in 2025
Mexico's economic integration with the US and Canada reached historic levels in 2025, with a significant percentage of its exports reliant on these neighbors.
As of the end of last year, Mexico's economy deepened its integration with the United States and Canada, partners in the USMCA, reaching unprecedented levels. Recent figures from Banxico show that in 2025, 86.4% of the dollars that entered Mexico from exports came from its northern neighbors. This marks a critical point in Mexico's trade dynamics and raises questions about the implications of such high dependence on a limited number of trading partners.
The total exports from Mexico reached a record high of $664.8 billion, with North America absorbing a whopping $574.1 billion, constituting 86.4% of the national export activity. This level of dependence has not been observed in the past two decades, pointing to a substantial consolidation of trade routes and economic ties. The historical context is significant, considering the shifting landscape of global trade and how Mexico has positioned itself within it.
Further analysis of the annual data indicates that the US remains the core pillar of this economic dynamic, with Mexico sending goods valued at $551.98 billion to the US last year, which alone represented 83% of total exports. This heavy reliance on the US market raises concerns about the vulnerability of Mexico's economy to fluctuations in US demand and policies, which could affect its economic stability and growth prospects going forward.