The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which recently won a significant electoral victory in the February 12 elections, is preparing for Tarique Rahman to officially take the role of Prime Minister on February 17. Amidst this political transition, Humayun Kabir, Rahman's advisor on foreign affairs, has raised concerns regarding the ongoing state of India-Bangladesh relations, particularly focusing on the renewal of the Ganga water treaty originally established in 1996. Kabir stated that the decision regarding the treaty's renewal would be based on Bangladesh's national interests, indicating a more assertive stance from the newly formed government.

As the treaty will need to be renewed by December 2023, the BNP's approach toward this bilateral issue will be closely monitored given the historical context of water allocation agreements between the countries. Kabir pointed out that past administrations had often prioritized India's regional interests when negotiating similar agreements; however, the new government under Rahman aims to adopt a more independent and self-determined approach to safeguard Bangladesh's national interests. This shift might indicate a tougher negotiating position in future discussions with India.

The backdrop of this political shift includes recent spikes in communal violence in Bangladesh, particularly against the Hindu minority following Sheikh Hasina's exit from power in August 2024. This context complicates bilateral relations further, with the BNP's potential rhetoric and policy directions being critical in shaping not only domestic stability but also the intricate relationship with neighboring India. As the BNP takes office, the renewal of the Ganga water treaty will be a crucial test of their foreign policy priorities and their approach to managing a historically sensitive issue with India.