The article highlights the ongoing fiscal crisis in Brazil under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pointing out how his administration has consistently modified or circumvented its own fiscal rule designed to control public finances, known as the fiscal framework. With 2026 being an election year, the article suggests that there is little indication this will change, as incumbents often have a tendency to increase spending in hopes of securing re-election.

The current fiscal framework is described as more complex than the previous spending cap implemented during the administrations of Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro, which simply limited expenditure increases to inflation. Lula's framework allows for a spending increase of up to 2.5% above inflation, calculated from 70% of the real revenue variations from the previous year. However, the article points out that Lula’s administration frequently imposed exceptions to this rule, including expenditures outside the targets and reclassifications of spending, raising concerns over fiscal discipline.

Despite formally meeting the primary surplus targets, the article suggests that the manipulation of fiscal rules by Lula's government may lead to worsening conditions if these practices continue unchecked, particularly in the lead-up to the next election. It calls for fiscal issues to be critically addressed during the campaign to ensure candidates are held accountable for their fiscal policies and decisions, as the long-term implications of ongoing fiscal mismanagement could have dire consequences for Brazil's economy.