Tunisia is significantly contributing to a decrease in olive oil prices this year due to a rebound in production after two challenging years. The current olive harvest across the Mediterranean has shown promising yields, with Tunisia expected to surpass 500,000 tons of production. This improvement in local production is impacting not only domestic prices but also the competitiveness of Tunisian olive oil exports.

Italian producers, represented by the agricultural association Coldiretti, are particularly alarmed by the increase in cheap Tunisian olive oil imports, which have risen by 40% in the first ten months of 2025. They express concerns that the influx of competitively priced Tunisian oil will undermine their market and threaten the sustainability of Italian olive oil producers. The rising imports come at a time when Italy is also experiencing challenges in its own production levels.

This situation highlights the complexities of the olive oil market in the Mediterranean region, where shifts in production dynamics can have significant economic implications. The interplay between Tunisia's growing exports and Italy's established reputation in olive oil production could alter market trends, potentially leading to increased tension between producers in different countries. Lawmakers and agricultural stakeholders in Italy may need to address and adapt to these changes to protect local producers.