In January 2026, Nigeria's food inflation rate significantly decreased to 8.89% year-on-year, marking the lowest figure recorded in more than 14 years, according to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics. This drop in food inflation is noteworthy as it denotes a rare instance of single-digit inflation, the first in 128 months, breaking a streak of double-digit inflation that persisted since June 2015. The previous high of food inflation was 10.04%, and this new low surpasses the previous minimum of 8.66% recorded in August 2011.

Accompanying this decline in food inflation, the headline inflation rate saw a slight decrease to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% in December 2025. This shift contradicts predictions by analysts who expected an increase to 19%. Analysts have linked the recent fall in inflation rates to improvements in food production and a stable exchange rate, yet representatives from the Organised Private Sector have urged caution. They suggest that while the current decline is positive, it should not lead to excessive optimism given the volatile nature of economic indicators in the region.

The implications of this trend are significant for Nigeria’s economy, which has faced persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices. The shift to a lower food inflation rate may lead to improved consumer confidence and purchasing power, thereby influencing broader economic activities. Additionally, the government and policymakers will need to consider these developments when making decisions to foster economic growth and maintain price stability moving forward.