Estonian intelligence analyst Andres Vosman highlights the Kremlin's fears of returning radicalized soldiers and the societal anxiety in Russia amid ongoing war and economic stagnation.
In an interview with vsquare.org, Andres Vosman, the former head of analysis for Estonia's foreign intelligence service (EFIS), indicates that the ongoing war is creating a profound sense of anxiety within Russian society rather than a belief in victory. He warns that the Kremlin, led by Vladimir Putin, is particularly fearful of radicalized soldiers returning from the front lines, as well as the technological decline of Russia, which he likens to becoming a mere 'appendage' of the Chinese economy. This societal anxiety is reflected in the rising prevalence of the word 'anxiety' in Russian bookstores, emphasizing a shift in the collective mindset.
Vosman explains that the Russian populace is increasingly questioning the promised victories that were touted by the government. They are feeling the repercussions of 15 years of economic stagnation, leading society to resemble the Soviet era marked by self-censorship and apathy. As frustrations mount, there is a palpable tension in the air, with citizens looking for tangible outcomes from the war while grappling with daily economic hardships.
Furthermore, the Kremlin is acutely aware of the sentiments in the smallest towns and cities, with authoritarian regimes fearing loss of control the most. Vosman notes that the return of hundreds of thousands of soldiers from the conflict raises significant concerns in Moscow, particularly the risks associated with radicalization and disappointment among these veterans. This situation is one that the Kremlin is watching closely as it directly impacts the stability of its grip on power and its future in the geopolitical landscape.
