At the start of the year, Argentina has seen a further decline in cattle slaughter, which had already been declining significantly since the previous fall. In January, the daily slaughter was reported to be 8% lower than in the previous year, and early February data suggests the trend of low livestock supply continues. Experts are debating whether this is a phase change in the cattle cycle or a seasonal retention issue. Current livestock supply is insufficient to meet a consumer demand that remains above 45 kilograms per person, while export opportunities, particularly in markets such as China, the European Union, and the United States, are growing.

The demand for beef is strong, yet available livestock is dwindling. Current results from the second foot-and-mouth disease vaccination campaign for 2025 support the hypothesis that we may not see any recovery in weaning rates for 2026, following the service in 2024 and calving in 2025. Although pregnancies for the 2024 service were satisfactory, this does not alleviate the immediate concerns regarding the falling number of cattle available for slaughter.

The implications of this downturn are significant for both local consumption and export markets. With international beef prices and overall global export volumes continuing to rise, the Argentine meat industry faces critical challenges ahead. Should the current trend persist, it could lead to reduced meat availability in local markets while simultaneously threatening the country's position in key export markets, ultimately impacting economic stability within this sector.