In Mexico, private consumption exhibited modest growth at the close of 2025 and the start of 2026, as highlighted by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). The institute projected a slight increase of 0.3 percent in December 2025, followed by a 0.1 percent rise in January 2026, indicating a cautious outlook for consumer spending. Year-on-year, private consumption recorded a notable growth of 4.5 percent, according to the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP).

However, contrasting data from BBVA Research's Big Data Consumption Indicator revealed a significant monthly decline of 4.1 percent in December, marking the steepest contraction since the onset of the pandemic. This downturn in private spending is attributed to reduced expenditures on goods and services, with spending on goods dropping by 2 percent and services by a stark 7.3 percent from the previous month. The financial firm elucidates that the slowdown in consumption reflects prevailing economic uncertainties.

These mixed signals may suggest cautious consumer sentiment as the year progresses. Analysts are closely observing how these indicators play out, considering the implications for Mexico's broader economic recovery. With inflationary pressures and potential external economic factors at play, understanding the trajectory of private consumption will be crucial for policymakers looking to stimulate demand and support economic growth in 2026.