On February 16, 2026, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) issued a temperature forecast indicating that while daytime temperatures may rise, the cold conditions will still persist in Mexico City's central areas. Minimum temperatures are expected to vary from 0 to 5°C in high-altitude regions of the State of Mexico, while Mexico City will experience warmer mornings with temperatures between 10 to 12°C.

The SMN's forecast highlights significant differences in temperatures across the region. For instance, in Toluca, the minimum temperature is expected to range from 4 to 6°C with maximums between 24 to 26°C, while the high mountainous areas could see early morning frosts due to extremely low temperatures. Additionally, isolated rains and strong winds with gusts between 60 to 80 km/h are anticipated throughout the day, particularly affecting travel and outdoor activities.

This weather pattern suggests a transitional phase in the region, where while a slight warming trend is underway, the remnants of colder weather are still being felt, especially in elevated terrains. It is crucial for residents, especially in colder areas, to stay informed and prepared for the ongoing cold conditions and possible weather impacts that may affect daily routines and safety.