In recent years, analysts have consistently underestimated the strength of the Mexican peso, predicting that it would depreciate against the dollar. As of last week, the dollar closed at 17.18 pesos, reflecting a 4.6% increase year-to-date and a 15.4% increase over the past year. Since December 2018, the peso has actually appreciated by 12.7% under President López Obrador's administration. Despite these trends, predictions for the peso's future value continue to lean towards anticipated depreciation, suggesting a disconnect between analyst expectations and market realities.

The historical performance of the peso has shown that forecasts made by analysts often miss the mark. For instance, in December 2018, the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) survey expected the exchange rate to close at 20.59 pesos for the end of 2019; however, the actual closing value was significantly lower at 18 pesos. This consistent pattern of erroneously predicting a stronger U.S. dollar illustrates the challenges analysts face in reading the market dynamics of the peso against the backdrop of economic policy and external factors influencing currency valuations.

Looking ahead to 2026, the latest Banxico survey among analysts places the forecast at a closure of 18.50 pesos. However, given the historical inaccuracies in these predictions and the recent strength of the peso, there is skepticism about whether these forecasts can be trusted. The implications of these repeated miscalculations could shed light on how market perceptions are shaped and the potential for analysts to adapt their methods in analyzing the peso's performance moving forward.