Political analyst Márton Gergely highlights Viktor Orbán's political narrative as an anti-establishment figure despite being part of Hungary's political establishment since 1989. Gergely points to the rise of Péter Magyar, who has successfully positioned himself as the anti-establishment candidate, illustrating the widespread corruption within the political system that has enriched members of the ruling party, Fidesz. Gergely reflects on the shifting perceptions among voters, particularly in Budapest, where the opposition party, Tisza, holds a significant lead in polls.

Gergely raises key questions regarding Magyar's success and real chances of winning against Orbán, as well as the mistakes Orbán has made that contribute to his political vulnerability. He notes that while Magyar hails from the establishment, he has managed to resonate with those disillusioned by the current regime, capturing their sentiments towards a corrupt system. With surveys indicating a substantial gap in support, the article delves into why the ruling party is not focusing on securing votes in Budapest despite the city's population nearing two million.

Overall, Gergely suggests that a narrow defeat for Orbán might still afford him strategic advantages, particularly regarding his political future and potential succession in a presidential role decided by the outgoing parliament. This scenario highlights the intricate dynamics at play within Hungarian politics as the next election approaches, reflecting both the risks and opportunities facing established political figures.