African Truce in Sudan: A Rescue Initiative or a New Test of the Will of the Warring Parties?
The African Union has called for an immediate humanitarian truce in Sudan, leading to a ceasefire and a comprehensive Sudanese dialogue, with varying analyst views on its potential success.
The African Union has proposed an immediate humanitarian truce in Sudan, aiming to pave the way for a ceasefire and extensive dialogue among the warring factions. This move is part of the ongoing attempts to halt the conflict, consistent with the AU's broader 'Silencing the Guns in Africa 2030' initiative. Analysts, however, express skepticism regarding the effectiveness of this proposal, especially in light of differing opinions within the AU on how to accurately characterize the war and the suitable tools for resolution.
Mohammad Tourchin, a Sudanese political analyst, commented on the AU's initiative, questioning whether it possesses the necessary resources and unity to implement its vision effectively. He highlighted the contrasting positions within the African Union, which may hinder a cohesive approach to this critical issue. Tourchin also warned that the proliferation of peace proposals could inadvertently prolong the conflict, as both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces rely heavily on military advances to strengthen their negotiating positions.
The dynamics on the ground, particularly the military gains made by the Sudanese army in certain regions, play a significant role in determining the government's commitment to the AU's proposal. Additionally, the question of legitimacy remains a major barrier to any potential agreement. Prime Minister Kamel Idris has reaffirmed his government's dedication to the proposal, yet the underpinning challenges illustrate the complexity of achieving lasting peace amid the ongoing strife in Sudan.