The article discusses how the Trump administration's policies have weakened Cuba's alliances, specifically in the context of its reliance on Venezuelan oil. President Trump has repeatedly suggested that Cuba is on the verge of falling apart, particularly without the support of Venezuela, which historically provided Cuba with essential oil supplies. This rhetoric follows a long history of U.S. presidents predicting the end of the Castro regime, yet the government's resilience remains evident, as it has survived decades of embargoes and international pressures.

In the backdrop of these political dynamics is the U.S. energy blockade, which has further isolated Cuba. Despite the increased sanctions and threats from the United States, there is minimal resistance to these actions, mainly limited to humanitarian aid and diplomatic rhetoric from other nations. The situation reflects a growing concern within Cuba regarding its economic stability should these alliances continue to deteriorate, especially if alternatives for oil supply from Venezuela become scarce.

Overall, the implications of Trump's strategy against Cuba highlight the continuing struggle for the Cuban government to maintain its sovereignty amidst external pressures. The article underscores an important geopolitical reality: the long-standing predictions about regime change have repeatedly proven inaccurate, suggesting a complex interplay of resilience and vulnerable dependencies that Cuba must navigate in the current global context.