Allies of Brazilian President Lula are expressing concerns over the third-party candidacy landscape as recent polls indicate Flávio Bolsonaro's solidifying position as a main contender in the presidential race. According to a close aide of the president, the ongoing polarization in Brazilian politics, mirroring the dynamics seen in the 2022 elections, suggests that third-party candidates might struggle significantly, with one leader stating that the 'third way is bound to embarrass itself'. Currently, the most viable third-party candidate appears to be Paraná governor Ratinho Jr., polling between 8% and 10%.

The recent Quaest poll reveals a tight race, with Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by just 5 percentage points in a potential second-round scenario, garnering 43% of the votes compared to Bolsonaro's 38%. This situation underscores the persistent binary political framework in Brazil, leaving little room for candidates outside the traditional major parties. Lula's allies emphasize that the current political climate offers minimal opportunity for alternative candidates to break through, particularly in key regions such as São Paulo.

As the election season unfolds, the implications of this polarization could shape both the campaigning strategies and voter perceptions, possibly leading to a repetition of the dichotomous structure that has characterized Brazilian politics in recent years. Not only does this provide insight into the preferences of the electorate, but it also highlights the challenges faced by any candidates or movements aiming to establish a significant third party presence in Brazilian politics.