The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 this year represents a significant shift in the arms control landscape between the United States and Russia. Originally established to limit the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons, this treaty has been a cornerstone of nuclear stability since its ratification in 2011. Its collapse raises concerns over potential increases in nuclear arms races, particularly in Europe, where nations may seek to develop or acquire their own nuclear capabilities in response to perceived threats from an aggressive Russia.

As American engagement in European security might diminish alongside the end of this treaty, Poland and its regional neighbors could find themselves more vulnerable to nuclear coercion from Russia. The possibility of an expanded circle of European nations acquiring nuclear arms is a troubling prospect, as it could lead to heightened tensions and a more precarious security environment. Furthermore, with no robust framework for nuclear arms limitation, questions arise about the formats of future negotiations and the implications for global nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

In light of these developments, Poland must reassess its defense strategies and consider enhanced cooperation with NATO allies to deter any nuclear threats posed by Russia. This situation serves as a wake-up call for European nations to not only evaluate their own defense expenditures but also to engage in diplomatic efforts to re-establish some form of arms control dialogue with both Russia and the United States. The shifting dynamics in nuclear deterrence necessitate a careful balancing of national security interests with the broader goals of stability and peace in Europe.