In the report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the current geopolitical landscape is described as a 'competition era' characterized by geopolitical tensions, information chaos, and social polarization. The WEF's analysis highlights four critical risks that could significantly alter the global environment by 2030. This analysis was conducted with input from 105 analysts across 22 countries and examined 277 identified risks and shocks.

The first identified risk is the shift towards a polycentric world order, where the influence of the United States will diminish, leading to a more selective and transactional form of leadership. Analysts suggest that while the U.S. will not lose its global influence entirely, its role as a foundational support for the current international system will lessen, presenting both challenges and opportunities for other nations to fill the leadership vacuum.

Furthermore, respondents in a survey indicated a significant decline in the expectation that the U.S. would remain the primary global leader, dropping from 70% predicting U.S. leadership in 2026 to only 37% envisioning this by 2030. In this evolving landscape, key indicators of global leadership and influence are increasingly tied to technological assets, particularly in artificial intelligence, as controlling data, chip manufacturing, cloud capacities, and payment systems becomes as critical as traditional military or territorial power.