The Carnival 2026 in Mato Grosso do Sul is expected to experience hot temperatures and the likelihood of storms, according to Climatempo's forecast. Rain may accompany winds gusting between 40 km/h and 50 km/h, especially in the south and interior regions of the state. Weather patterns suggest that low-pressure areas will help form dense cloud cover throughout much of the state, with an increased chance of storms particularly on the night of Friday, February 13.

As the Carnival weekend progresses, Saturday morning should begin with sunny and stable weather in various regions. However, rising temperatures and humidity may trigger scattered showers in the afternoon and evening. In the eastern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, these showers are expected to be irregular but could range from moderate to heavy. The forecast advises residents and tourists attending the festivities to remain alert for sudden weather changes, especially Friday night which carries a higher risk of intense rain and lightning.

Overall, while the forecast points to potential rainfall during the Carnival events, the situations may return to sunnier conditions thereafter. Participants are encouraged to stay informed about weather updates as the Carnival period approaches, optimizing their plans to enjoy the festivities while being prepared for possible weather disruptions.