Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have interpreted two significant moves by Russian President Vladimir Putin as indicative of a perceived threat to his regime. One of these moves involves the formal integration of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) into the Russian military, a decree personally signed by Putin. Additionally, it has been reported that the Russian Security Council may be planning to abolish the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) and merge some of its functions with the National Guard, further consolidating military power under the control of Putin-loyalist General Valery Gerasimov.

The ISW analysts argue that these actions aim to strengthen control over security forces and ensure loyalty amid challenges to Putin's authority. Particularly noteworthy is the reference to the National Guard's poor performance during the June 2023 uprising led by Wagner Group's Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has likely intensified concerns within Putin's inner circle about maintaining order and stability in the face of potential dissent.

As the situation develops, the ramifications of these moves could signal a shift in how Putin manages internal threats and reinforces loyalty among military leaders. This consolidation of power may allow for more aggressive responses to dissent, but it also raises concerns about the potential for increased militarization of state responses to political challenges, affecting broader social stability in Russia.