Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has faced no significant opposition since taking office in 2019, is preparing to hold a referendum in March that seeks to amend laws concerning freedom of speech and political succession. The government's push for these reforms follows violent protests in January 2022, which resulted in 238 deaths due to rising living costs, reflecting public discontent and demands for change.

The referendum proposals include abolishing the Senate and establishing a unicameral parliament, as well as reinstating the vice presidency. These changes are perceived by observers as an effort to solidify Tokayev's power and potentially prepare a successor, while also attempting to enhance his legitimacy following the unrest and in response to calls for reform. The relationship with major allies like Russia and China remains a backdrop to these political developments, signaling the complex dynamics at play in Central Asia.

The implications of the referendum extend beyond internal political mechanisms; they may also influence Kazakhstan's international relations and its standing in the region. As an ally of Russia and a partner with China, the reforms could be used to stabilize Tokayev's regime amid external pressures while attempting to address internal grievances, all while managing the perception of authoritarianism versus democratic reform.