Development of the fighting (Day 1449): When can territory be considered occupied by Russians and why the DeepState UA account may be too optimistic
The article discusses the complexities of defining Russian-occupied territory in the context of ongoing fighting in Ukraine, noting a recent expansion of the grey zone as per the DeepState UA account.
The article explores the evolving situation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, focusing on how territory is classified as Russian-occupied. According to the account from DeepState UA, the grey zone—areas of contested control—has reportedly expanded by a third since September. However, the article questions the reliability of such assessments, suggesting that various factors can distort the overall picture of control on the battlefield and attributing the rapid changes to ongoing military actions rather than a static occupation.
Key developments include Ukrainian forces successfully pushing Russian troops from a settlement near Stepnohirsk, indicating some tactical advantages on the Ukrainian side. It highlights the potential influence of limited Russian access to satellite communication through Starlink and adverse weather conditions, which Ukrainian forces may exploit to reclaim territory from Russia. Additionally, the article points out that while Russia's assaults continue unabated, the nature of the conflict remains highly dynamic, with each day's field reports capable of altering operational strategies drastically.
Furthermore, the article provides relevant statistics and visual insights, showing that European assistance to Ukraine significantly relies on a few countries, while the overall rate of Russian attacks has not seen a meaningful decline. The accompanying maps and graphs aim to clarify the ongoing shifts in control dynamics and underline the importance of accurate information in navigating the complexities of this prolonged conflict.