As regional tensions surrounding Iran escalate, there are growing speculations regarding whether the United States is positioning itself to militarily encircle Iran from the north. This speculation is fueled by recent geopolitical shifts in the Caucasus region, particularly involving the movement of American military shipments. Reports indicate that there has been unusual American air traffic activity in Armenia and Azerbaijan, prompting concerns and discussions about a potential military buildup aimed at Iran's northern border.

According to flight tracking data, the U.S. Air Force has conducted approximately 35 military cargo flights to Armenia and Azerbaijan in a short period. These operations reportedly began on January 30, 2026, with a gradual increase, culminating in a peak of six flights per day on February 10 and 11. Analysts are investigating whether this military shipment activity is indicative of preparations for a future attack on Iran, or if it represents a strategic logistical repositioning without direct engagement in the region.

The analysis of this military movement raises significant questions regarding U.S. foreign policy in the region and its implications for relations with Iran. If the U.S. is indeed attempting to encircle Iran by strengthening its presence in the Caucasus, this could further destabilize the already fraught geopolitical landscape. Moreover, it highlights the intricate dynamics between the U.S., Iran, and their respective allies in an era of shifting alliances and regional power struggles, emphasizing the critical importance of understanding such military maneuvers in the context of broader international relations.