Femi Otedola, a prominent Nigerian businessman, has projected that the naira may potentially trade below ₦1,000 to the US dollar by the end of 2026 if the Dangote Petroleum Refinery achieves its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. This assertion was made in a recent social media post where Otedola commended Aliko Dangote for this significant milestone in Nigeria’s petrochemical sector. Currently, the naira has seen some strengthening against the US dollar, trading around ₦1,354 officially and between ₦1,430 and ₦1,440 in the parallel market, reflecting the currency's strongest position in over two years.

Otedola emphasized the transformative potential of the Dangote Refinery, highlighting its capability to produce 75 million liters of Premium Motor Spirit daily, which he believes will positively alter Nigeria's energy dynamics and reduce the need for foreign currency expenditures typically associated with fuel imports. With the nation’s long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products, achieving self-sufficiency through domestic refineries is seen as a crucial step for Nigeria’s economic economy.

The implications of the refinery reaching full capacity could be far-reaching, not only for Nigeria’s economy but also for the broader West African region. It is anticipated that enhanced local refining will lessen vulnerabilities associated with currency fluctuations and boost domestic production. If successful, this initiative could fundamentally shift Nigeria’s role in the regional energy market and support the strengthening of the naira against the dollar as it transitions to a more self-reliant economy.