New data from Nav indicates that the rise in the number of individuals on disability pensions in Norway has reached its lowest level since 2013, with an increase of only 1,900 recipients last year. As of the start of 2025, a total of 374,900 people, representing 10.5% of the population aged 18 to 67, were receiving disability pensions. The inflow comprised 26,100 new recipients, while 24,200 individuals exited the program, marking a steady trend since mid-2020.

Despite the current stabilization, Nav anticipates a significant increase in disability pensions going forward. Projections suggest that the number of recipients will rise to 380,100 within the current year, and further to 386,000 by 2027. This anticipated growth suggests increased challenges in managing disability support in Norway, as the proportion of individuals receiving assistance between ages 18 and 67 is expected to reach 10.7% by 2027.

The report reflects broader trends in health and employment in Norway, indicating a period characterized by high sick leave rates and an increasing number of recipients of labor market benefits (AAP). Though the figures demonstrate a moment of stabilizing growth in disability pensions, the projected increases show a need for ongoing attention to the factors influencing long-term disability among the workforce.