Feb 11 • 20:04 UTC 🇱🇹 Lithuania Lrytas

From an economist – forecasts on the end of the war and shocks to Europe: urges to wake up from illusions

The article discusses an economist's views on the miscalculations of Western leaders regarding the geopolitical landscape and the prolonged expectations surrounding the Ukraine-Russia war.

The article features insights from economist W. Münchau, who criticizes the strategic mistakes made by key European leaders, particularly UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He argues that they have failed to recognize the shifting center of geopolitical influence away from Europe, which undermines their understanding of the current conflict and its likely resolution. Münchau emphasizes that the Western illusion surrounding quick outcomes resembles the misperceptions prevalent at the onset of World War I.

Münchau parallels contemporary Western sentiments with those during the early 20th century, highlighting that many believed World War I would end swiftly. He points out that today's expectations concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict are even more unrealistic, suggesting a desire for Russia's total defeat without considering the consequences or practicalities of a prolonged war. He argues that a wish for Ukraine to fight indefinitely is not grounded in reality but rather reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the regional dynamics.

Furthermore, Münchau challenges the belief that Russia will remain forever isolated, advocating for a more nuanced view of international relations post-conflict. He asserts that the freezing of Russian assets and exclusion from international forums may not be sustainable, suggesting that relationships will inevitably evolve after the war ends, leading to a complex, possibly different geopolitical landscape than anticipated. Such perspectives call for a reassessment of current narratives and strategies among Western leaders.

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