JP Morgan analyzed the postponement of the new IPC and projected inflation above 2% monthly in the first half
JP Morgan forecasts that inflation in Argentina will exceed 2% monthly in the first half of the year, contrary to the government's goals.
JP Morgan's latest report on Argentina highlights the government's decision to postpone the methodological update of the Consumer Price Index (IPC), led by President Javier Milei. The bank revised its expectations for inflation in 2026, projecting that the monthly inflation rate will not go below 2% at least in the first half of the year. This stands in stark contrast to President Mileiβs official aim for a rate beginning with zero.
The analysis focuses on January's inflation data, which recorded a monthly increase of 2.9%, exceeding JP Morgan's own forecast of 2.5% and surpassing the consensus among private analysts. This trend suggests that the adjustments in tariffs and the ongoing pressures from food prices are expected to sustain a high inflation environment in the short term, indicating that consumers will continue to face financial strain.
The implications of this projection reveal the challenges the Milei administration faces in controlling inflation amidst economic turbulence. With public expectations set against a backdrop of rising costs and increased living expenses, the government's objectives may become increasingly difficult to achieve. The report raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and whether they can stabilize the economy in the terms outlined by the administration.