The article by Eerik-Niiles Kross highlights the drastically changing security environment in Europe, where the previous assumptions that guided Estonia's national defense strategy are no longer valid. It points to the shifting strategic focus of the United States, which has indicated a reduced role in directly commanding air operations or participating in defense efforts on the continent. This raises critical questions about what would happen if the U.S. decided not to lead aerial warfare in Europe or support it directly, an increasingly realistic concern given statements from U.S. officials urging Europe to take greater responsibility for its conventional defense.

Kross argues that while NATO is not disappearing, the conditions under which it operates are changing significantly. The emphasis shifts towards the air domain, where factors such as airspace control, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), targeting, and airstrikes are becoming more emphasized in strategic dialogues. These alterations force Estonia to critically reassess its military capabilities and preparedness for the future, as reliance on historical assumptions may expose vulnerabilities in the event of a confrontation.

Ultimately, Kross believes two specific capabilities will be essential for Estonia's defense going forward. These capabilities are necessary to adapt to the new realities presented by the uncertainty in American military engagement in Europe. The article argues for a proactive approach to national defense in a climate where the balance of power is shifting, necessitating a stronger and more self-reliant national defense posture for Estonia.