India has been slowly but steadily decreasing its import of Russian oil, which previously made it, alongside China, one of the largest buyers of Russian energy resources. This shift could have significant implications for Russia's economy, particularly its ability to fund the war in Ukraine. The country's state budget relies heavily on oil revenue, and decreasing sales would put more pressure on the already strained financial resources of the Kremlin.

The decline in Russian oil production is evidenced by data, which, although not officially released anymore, indicates concerning trends. According to Bloomberg, Russian oil companies produced an average of 9.28 million barrels per day in January, a decrease from December and falling below the production limits set by OPEC member states. This trend reflects the impact of U.S. sanctions and the ongoing geopolitical shift as some of Russia's traditional allies are leaning towards the U.S. and its sanctions regime.

As India's stance on Russian oil imports changes, it raises broader implications about international alliances and economic pressures in the context of the Ukraine conflict. The potential drop in Russian oil exports could exacerbate existing economic challenges within Russia, influencing both domestic stability and the Kremlin's military objectives. Overall, this situation reinforces the significant role that energy markets play in global diplomacy and conflict.