According to the annual report from Estonia's foreign intelligence agency, Russia is not planning to conduct military aggression against Estonia or other NATO countries this year. However, it is increasing the personnel strength of its armed forces and restoring strategic stocks of artillery ammunition. Moreover, Russia is forming drone units based on the principle of a mass army. The fixation on controlling Ukraine has become an obsession for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as it would allow Russia to re-establish its status as a major power with decision-making authority over European security matters.

Diplomatic negotiations are seen as a tactic aimed at winning the war and weakening the unity of Western nations. Nevertheless, the report indicates that Russia is unlikely to attack Estonia or any other NATO member state this year and likely not in the next year either. Experts suggest that Putin respects NATO and has thoroughly calculated that engaging in kinetic conflict would result in catastrophic consequences for him. However, military reforms are expected to elevate Russia's military capabilities in the future, indicating a long-term strategic commitment to expanding its military resources.

Overall, the war's prolongation is contributing to Russia's internal instability, as the government seeks to blend its military efforts with strategic posturing. While immediate threats to NATO members seem unlikely, the focus on military enhancement and potential future aggressions raises concerns about regional security in the long run, emphasizing the need for vigilance among NATO allies as the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve.