"The thing is": Kazimierz Wóycicki: "Ukraine will not surrender"
Kazimierz Wóycicki argues that real peace in Ukraine is unlikely, as military outcomes are crucial for determining the conflict's resolution, contradicting previous promises of a quick end to the war by Donald Trump.
In a reflection a year after Donald Trump promised a swift end to the war in Ukraine, Bogusław Chrabota notes that Russia has not been compelled to agree to a ceasefire. Dr. Kazimierz Wóycicki, a lecturer at the Catholic University in Lviv, suggests that the situation is dire, indicating that Ukrainians perceive the battlefield as the primary arena for resolution rather than diplomatic endeavors. They seem to be strategically complying with diplomatic pressures while focusing on military strategies.
Wóycicki asserts that the prospect of a negotiated peace appears dim, as he believes the dynamics of the conflict indicate that President Putin lacks the political latitude to withdraw from the war without declaring a victory. According to him, such a scenario could provoke significant domestic instability in Russia. The control over the military is manageable only when troops are mobilized and actively engaged, and ceasing operations would risk losing that grip, exposing Putin to potential backlash within Russia.
Consequently, Wóycicki emphasizes that the determination of the Ukrainian front will ultimately dictate the future of the conflict. His insights reflect a grim understanding among Ukrainians that diplomacy is often a necessary but inadequate tool in the face of military realities. Given the context of ongoing Russian aggression since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022, there is a palpable urgency in Ukraine's military efforts as they seek to endure and possibly turn the tide of the conflict.