A recently discovered asteroid has raised concerns about a potential impact on the Moon, which could release an energy equivalent to 6.5 million tons of TNT.
An asteroid roughly 60 meters wide, discovered on December 27, 2024, briefly captured attention in February 2025 when astronomers calculated it had the highest likelihood of colliding with Earth among similarly sized asteroids. This probability reached 3.1%, but further calculations ruled out any chance of the asteroid colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, when it would be closest to our planet. Currently, NASA reports a 4.3% chance that the asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, could impact the Moon instead, which would release an immense amount of energy during the impact, equivalent to 6.5 million tons of TNT.
This possible lunar collision has intrigued researchers, particularly Yifei Jiao, a doctoral candidate at the University of California. Jiao and his colleagues view this scenario as a "rare natural experiment"—a predicted collision involving a smaller celestial body that could yield valuable scientific insights and operational data. As preparations for more detailed observations are underway, this event could lead to significant advancements in understanding impact events and the dynamics of asteroids.So far, researchers are closely monitoring the asteroid's trajectory and implications of its potential impacts, underscoring the intersection of astronomy and planetary defense studies.
