In a recent assessment released by the National Center for Terror Threat Assessment (NCT), it was reported that one of the foremost causes of the terror threat in Sweden is the consumption and dissemination of violent propaganda online. The threat level remains at three on a five-point scale, indicating a serious concern. However, the nature of the threat has evolved, shifting from traditional terrorist organizations like ISIS and al-Qaeda to a broader security challenge influenced by global events such as the war in Ukraine and the situation in Gaza.

Ahn-Za Hagström, head of the NCT, highlighted that global events are being utilized to justify and mobilize various types of activities, including serious acts of violence. This overlapping of threats and motivations means that targets could potentially be attacked by multiple actors for different reasons. The ability for individuals to draw inspiration from online materials amplifies the threat, as it could increase the likelihood of violent acts committed by those influenced by such content.

The NCT's evaluation for 2026 emphasizes the importance of addressing online radicalization as a critical component of national security. With individuals who spread violent propaganda identified as a primary driving force behind the threats, there is a heightened risk that such actions will continue to inspire others to commit violence, complicating efforts to ensure public safety in Sweden.