In January 2023, Sweden saw a remarkable decline in gun homicides, recording zero deaths from shootings for the first time since March 2018. This significant drop has caught the attention of both the public and experts, leading to discussions about the underlying reasons for this unusual trend. According to Swedish news outlet Svenska Dagbladet, several factors contribute to this alleviation in gun violence, with the severe cold winter being one of the primary influences.

Criminologist Manne Gerell from Malmö University suggests that the extreme winter weather conditions may have played a crucial role in limiting outdoor activities, thereby reducing opportunities for violent encounters. He notes that there often is a noticeable dip in the number of shootings during the cold months of January and February, as warmer weather tends to correlate with increased violent crime due to people being more active outdoors. The data indicates that with the arrival of warmth, public spaces become more populated, potentially leading to more confrontations.

Additionally, Gerell posits that recent arrests of gang leaders, who have been hiding abroad, may have contributed to the positive trajectory observed in Sweden's crime statistics. These arrests could deter gang activity and indicate a more substantial crackdown on organized crime. Despite the encouraging figures from January, experts remain cautious about long-term patterns, as violent crime offenses have been on the rise overall in Sweden in recent years, making January's figures a noteworthy but isolated incident in a larger trend of concern regarding public safety.