In the wake of a recent massacre in Iran, numerous so-called reform politicians have publicly distanced themselves from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, indicating a shift in political alliances and support within the regime. Several of these reformist figures have since been arrested, suggesting a crackdown on dissent amid rising tensions. This shift indicates a potential fragmentation of Khamenei's support base, which has been traditionally robust.

A significant event on the Iranian revolutionary calendar was overshadowed by Khamenei's absence, marking a notable moment in his 37-year rule where he failed to attend a supposedly essential gathering commemorating a pivotal moment of the 1979 revolution. Historically, Khamenei has been present at these commemorations regardless of external circumstances, including the COVID-19 pandemic. His absence not only raises questions about his current standing among the military and political elite but also signals growing discontent and challenges to his leadership.

Instead of engaging directly with military commanders, Khamenei delivered a recorded televised address from an undisclosed location, urging supporters to attend the upcoming Revolution Day celebrations. This move may reflect Khamenei’s strategic attempts to rally support as his authority increasingly appears to be in jeopardy, with the regime utilizing this day to reinforce its narrative while political dynamics within Iran evolve dramatically.