Ukrainian grain exports have decreased by 30% over a six-month period due to various factors including EU quotas, Russian strikes, and adverse weather conditions.
The US Department of Agriculture reported a significant 30% decline in Ukraine's grain exports over the past six months, averaging just 2.5 million tonnes from July to December 2025 compared to previous periods. This downturn comes despite earlier projections that suggested a more stable export rate. Key contributing factors to this decline include the reinstatement of European Union quotas on agricultural products, ongoing attacks from Russia targeting energy and transport infrastructure, and direct assaults on Ukrainian vessels both in ports and in the Black Sea.
Furthermore, the delay in maize harvest has compounded the challenges for Ukrainian exporters, with producers managing to collect only 92% of this year's crop. Adverse weather conditions have played a crucial role in this setback, where excessive rainfall hampered machinery access to fields, and high moisture levels necessitated drying the crop before it could be exported. This situation has left many producers facing significant logistical hurdles ahead of the critical export season.
Ukrainian authorities, including Taras Vysotskyi, the Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, have attributed these export challenges directly to the Russian military aggression affecting the country's seaports and overall agriculture infrastructure. As Ukraine continues to navigate these complex challenges, the implications for both its economy and global food supply chains could be significant, necessitating increased international support and strategic responses to bolster its agricultural sector.
