The Central Bank's Focus survey released on Monday (9) indicates a continuous adjustment in economists' inflation forecasts, marking the fifth consecutive week of reductions. The expectation for the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) inflation rate for 2024 is now set at 3.97%, a slight decrease from last week's estimate of 3.99%. In contrast, the inflation forecast for 2027 remains steady at 3.8%, unchanged for 14 weeks, suggesting a stabilized outlook for the longer term.

The official inflation target in Brazil is 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points, which indicates that while the forecast remains above the target, it is still within an acceptable range. The Focus survey, compiled from the opinions of around one hundred economists, did not show any alterations in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth projections, which remain at 1.8% for both 2026 and 2027.

Additionally, projections for the Selic rate, the central bank’s basic interest rate, remain unchanged at 12.25% by the end of this year and 10.5% for the following year. With the current Selic rate at 15%, the forecasts indicate a cautious optimism regarding economic stability in Brazil as it navigates its post-pandemic recovery.