Tyson Barker, a former American diplomat with a focus on Europe and Ukraine during the Biden administration, has recently expressed concerns regarding the reliability of US support for Europe in times of external threats. From his current base in Berlin, Barker's insights reflect a growing skepticism about America's commitment to defend its European allies, especially in light of the unpredictable political climate surrounding the US. He suggests that European countries should consider keeping their distance from US guarantees and focus on their own security strategies.

Barker's prediction includes the possibility of Donald Trump continuing to assert claims over Greenland, emphasizing that even if Trump does not pursue this, there remains only a 50% chance that Americans will come to Europe's aid if it faces threats. This statement indicates a significant shift in the perception of transatlantic alliances, urging European leaders to reevaluate their dependence on American military support. Barker highlights a current 'tactical retreat' in US foreign policy, which could lead to increased volatility in European security.

Overall, the diminishing confidence in US defense commitments could compel European nations to bolster their own military capabilities and seek stronger regional partnerships. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, Barker's comments serve as a timely warning for Europe to reassess its strategic outlook, particularly in the context of potential future conflicts and the need for greater self-reliance.