Despite the expiration of the New START treaty, experts believe a nuclear arms race between the U.S. and Russia is unlikely due to ongoing military commitments, particularly Russia's involvement in Ukraine.
The expiration of the New START treaty, a pivotal arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of nuclear arms races. Notably, this treaty placed restrictions on the number of deployed strategic warheads each country could hold, aiming to stabilize an increasingly tense geopolitical landscape. While some analysts warn that without such agreements, there is a risk of nuclear arms escalation, many believe that both nations are unlikely to engage in a large-scale arms race at this juncture.
Specifically for Russia, the immediate context involves its ongoing military conflict in Ukraine, which demands vast resources and limits its fiscal capacity to pursue an ambitious nuclear arsenal expansion. The costs associated with a significant increase in strategic missile deployment would not only detract from its current military operations but also strain its economy. This situation suggests that despite increasing tensions and mistrust in international relations, practical realities may inhibit any immediate escalation in nuclear armament.
Overall, while the expiring treaty prompts discussions about nuclear proliferation fears, European leaders and analysts urge a measured approach. The nuclear posturing from both Russia and the United States may not translate into frantic armament due to existing military commitments and economic constraints, presenting a complex but ultimately restrained response to the treaty's expiration.
