Current tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Venezuela have raised concerns in the oil market. However, experts suggest that these geopolitical issues have not significantly altered the outlook for oil prices this year. According to these specialists, the international oil market is currently experiencing an excess supply from producing countries, which is expected to keep prices low in the coming months. The market forecasts that oil prices will stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel by 2026, a level close to what is necessary for maintaining viable investments in the sector, particularly for more expensive projects.

In Brazil, cheaper oil prices typically help stabilize gasoline and diesel costs, which can, in turn, alleviate inflation. Lower fuel costs are generally beneficial for consumers, as they reduce spending on transportation and goods affected by transport costs. However, there is also a downside; lower oil prices can negatively impact public finances in Brazil, since a substantial portion of government revenue is derived from taxes on fuel chains and oil exports.

Overall, while Trump's threats may increase market volatility, the foundational issues of supply and demand dynamics appear to be exerting a greater influence on oil prices than geopolitical tensions. The market's expectations suggest that unless there is a significant change in production levels or a major geopolitical crisis, oil prices will likely remain stable within the projected range, impacting both the economy and government revenues in Brazil.