In a significant military development, the Sudanese army announced on February 3rd that it has lifted the siege on Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan state, following weeks of military operations. These operations began with the armed forces advancing from the town of Dilling, where they launched concentrated attacks on positions held by the Rapid Support Forces and their allies from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (Al-Hilu faction), utilizing air strikes and drones to destroy supply lines. The battles have resulted in regaining control over the national road linking Dilling and Kadugli, allowing supply convoys into the city, thereby ending a siege that lasted more than two years and inflicting significant losses on the militia, which has retreated towards Western Kordofan. This marks a clear battlefield shift in favor of the army.

The implications of breaking the siege extend beyond immediate military success, as it could indicate a transition in the conflict from an open war of attrition to a recalibration of the balance of power. The siege had been one of the primary means used by the Rapid Support Forces to exert military and political pressure, and its continuation served to entrench a battlefield reality that would favor coercive negotiating tactics. Therefore, lifting the siege represents both a symbolic and pragmatic blow to this approach, signaling a potential change in the dynamics of the conflict.

With this development, the Sudanese army may find itself in a stronger position not only on the ground but also in any forthcoming negotiations, as they aim to alter the narrative of the conflict toward more favorable terms. The situation remains fluid, and how the Rapid Support Forces will adapt to this setback will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the conflict in Sudan.